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Sep
19
2005
Fooled By Randomness
This is an entertainingly written, occasionally bitchy, book about
randomness in business and life. The author is a trader on various
exchanges. I notice from his web page that he
currently teaches at UMass-Amherst.
I was drawn to check the book out of the library thanks to Tyler Cowan's
praise of it on his blog. (UPDATE: Tyler's removed this
post because his commenters got abusive. Trust me, he liked it.)
It's a quirky, personal exploration, fun to read. I've been exposed to
most of the counter-intuitive results of probability theory the author
explores, but the application to high finance is fascinating.
I especially enjoyed this
from the preface:
My rules while writing this book have been to avoid discussing (a)
anything I did not either personally witness on the topic or develop
independently, and (b) anything that I have not distilled well enough to
be able to write on the subject with the slightest effort. Everything
that remotely felt like work was out. I had to purge the text from
passages that seemed to come from a visit to the library, including
scientific name dropping. I tried to use no quote that does not
naturally spring from my memory and does not come from a writer whom I
have intimately frequented over the years. (I detest the practice of
random use of borrowed wisdom — much on that, later.)
Aut taceaut loquere meliora silencio
(only when the words outperform silence).
Guilty realization that if I hewed to the same rules in putting stuff
in this blog, it would get real thin, real fast. Oh well …
Disclaimers:
Unquoted opinions expressed herein are solely those of the
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