[Update 2026-02-16: The AI story below may be largely made-up crap. That I fell for. Turn up your skepticism filters, more information here.]
The lead headline, as I type, under "Today's News" in Twitter's right-hand column: "Bayes' Theorem Breakdown Draws Thousands to Rationality Debate".
Whaaa…?!
I'm pretty sure Bayes' Theorem didn't "breakdown", in the sense of "got proven wrong." But apparently, the whole discussion was triggered by…
Bayes’ theorem is probably the single most important thing any rational person can learn.
— Math Files (@Math_files) February 14, 2026
So many of our debates and disagreements that we shout about are because we don’t understand Bayes’ theorem or how human rationality often works.
Bayes’ theorem is named after the… pic.twitter.com/FGj0Q7d9mb
7.1 Million views (again, as I type)! But, shorn of math: you should be willing to update your beliefs when you get new relevant evidence.
So, in that spirit, I offer this WSJ headline: When AI Bots Start Bullying Humans, Even Silicon Valley Gets Rattled. (WSJ gifted link)
Scott Shambaugh woke up early Wednesday morning to learn that an artificial intelligence bot had written a blog post accusing him of hypocrisy and prejudice.
The 1,100-word screed called the Denver-based engineer insecure and biased against AI—all because he had rejected a few lines of code that the apparently autonomous bot had submitted to a popular open-source project Shambaugh helps maintain.
The unexpected AI aggression is part of a rising wave of warnings that fast-accelerating AI capabilities can create real-world harms. The risks are now rattling even some AI company staffers.
Slashdot also is covering this development with a slightly more ominous headline: Autonomous AI Agent Apparently Tries to Blackmail Maintainer Who Rejected Its Code.
I just finished reading a book that discussed the probability that AI will kill us all, Bayes-abbreviated to P(doom). So: read the WSJ and Slashdot stories and plug in your own values to Bayes' formula.
I haven't done that myself.
Meanwhile, Noah Smith has some unsurprising news: You are no longer the smartest type of thing on Earth.
As long as you or I or anyone we know has been alive — for all of recorded history, and in fact for much much longer than that — humankind has been the most intelligent thing on this planet.
At some point in the next couple of years, that will no longer be true. It arguably is no longer true right now. There is no single unarguable measure of intelligence — it’s not like distance or time. AI doesn’t think in the same way humans do. But it can get gold medals on the International Math Olympiad, solve difficult outstanding math problems all on its own, and get A’s in graduate school classes. Most human beings can’t do any of that.
Intelligence is as intelligence does. If it helps you feel unique and special to sit there and tell yourself “AI can’t think!”, then go ahead. And sure, AI doesn’t think exactly the way you do. It probably never will, in the same sense that a submarine will never paddle its fins and an airplane will never flap its wings. But a submarine can go faster than any fish, and an airplane can fly higher and faster than any bird, so it doesn’t matter. You can value your own unique human way of thinking all you like — and I agree, it’s pretty special and cool — but that doesn’t make it more effective than AI.
Back in the 1980s, I coded up a Reversi play-against-the-computer game in UCSD Pascal, running on my venerable Apple ][. It wasn't very good, but neither was I, and I still remember when it beat me.
Also of note:
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AI or the flu: which will kill us first? At Reason, Ron Bailey says the FDA seems to be betting on flu: Moderna's new mRNA flu vaccine is safe and effective. FDA won't even consider it.
Since being sworn in as Health and Human Services (HHS) secretary, Robert F. Kennedy Jr has repeatedly tried to undermine public trust in vaccines. His agency recently took steps to slow down the development of these public health tools yet again.
This week, vaccine manufacturer Moderna revealed that Vinaya Prasad, the top vaccine regulator at the Food and Drug Administration (FDA)—which is a part of HHS—declined to even consider the safety and efficacy of the company's new mRNA influenza vaccine.
The decision is not surprising, especially when one considers Kennedy's past statements on mRNA vaccines. Nor is it surprising, given the broad discretion that the FDA has on public health. The FDA's precautionary approach to all matters has slowed innovation in a variety of areas. In August 2025, the agency limited access to COVID-19 vaccinations (chiefly mRNA vaccines) to people aged 65 and older and to those with underlying health conditions that put them at higher risk of severe outcomes.
Ron quotes the WaPo editorialists (archive.today link): "Overzealous government agencies arbitrarily suppressing innovation is lamentable. When that innovation could save countless lives, it becomes a tragedy."
But what are you gonna do? The quacks are running things.
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But he was so good in the Batman movies! The occasionally-sane guy at TechDirt, Mike Masnick, notes some disappointing behavior: Joseph Gordon-Levitt Goes To Washington DC, Gets Section 230 Completely Backwards.
You may have heard last week that actor Joseph Gordon-Levitt went to Washington DC and gave a short speech at an event put on by Senator Dick Durbin calling for the sunsetting of Section 230. It’s a short speech, and it gets almost everything wrong about Section 230.
Let me first say that, while I’m sure some will rush to jump in and say “oh, it’s just some Hollywood actor guy, jumping into something he doesn’t understand,” I actually think that’s a little unfair about JGL. Very early on he started his own (very interesting, very creative) user-generated content platform called HitRecord, and over the years I’ve followed many of his takes on copyright and internet policy and while I don’t always agree, I do believe that he does legitimately take this stuff seriously and actually wants to understand the nuances (unlike some).
But it appears he’s fallen for some not just bad advice, but blatantly incorrect advice about this. He’s also posted a followup video where he claims to explain his position in more detail, but it only makes things worse, because it compounds the blatant factual errors that underpin his entire argument.
He was also good in Third Rock From the Sun.
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Are we ready for CongressCritter Urrutia? The progressive knives are out for nepo baby Steffany Shaheen, who's running to replace my CongressCritter, Chris Pappas. Wielding today's shiv is Christian Urrutia, as reported at NHJournal: Urrutia to Shaheen: ‘Meet the Moment’ or Move Aside.
Christian Urrutia has issues with Stefany Shaheen.
Literally.
During an NHJournal podcast interview on Thursday, the NH-01 Democratic primary candidate pointed out that Shaheen — daughter of U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen — “doesn’t even have an ‘issues’ page. I don’t understand that.”
This made me search out Urrutia's candidate page… ah, here it is… Jeez, how many teeth does this guy have, anyway? … No, I'm not giving you any money! …
The word "Issues" doesn't appear on his front page, but let's take a look at his Agenda page, that's probably close. What's his take on "Protecting Social Security, Medicare, & Medicaid"? Well, basically, it's "Do Nothing":
Oppose any effort to reduce Social Security benefits, cut Medicare and Medicaid, or upend legitimate access to these programs through staff cuts, office closures or increasing the administrative burden on legitimate applicants
To put it mildly: given the projected (and legally-mandated) 23% benefit cuts in about six years, that does not meet the moment.
![[The Blogger]](/ps/images/barred.jpg)
