Nov
9
2016

Wrong About Everything (Election Thoughts)

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Whoa. Did not see that coming.

  • I admit that nearly every prediction I made about this election season was wrong, wrong, wrong. Sometimes spectacularly so. I'm not ashamed, much. I never claimed to be a master prognosticator. But still.

  • I'm not alone though. I've just finished up reading through the November 7 issue of National Review, and the back page article by Daniel Foster begins:

    Some of you won't read this column until after Hillary Clinton is elected 45th president of the United States. But I'm writing it before she is [Obviously — pas], and so it feels like I should offer some summation of these, the longest 83 years of my life, or perhaps a few weighty portents of things to come.

    So how seriously or insightful should I take the rest of the column?

  • Also with a large amount of egg-on-face this morning: the University Near Here Survey Center, whose last New Hampshire polling had:

    • Hillary Clinton beating Donald Trump by 11 points (51%-40%). As I type in the early 11/9 AM, the race is pretty much tied at 47% each, The Donald slightly ahead.

    • Maggie Hassan beating Kelly Ayotte for the US Senate by 5 points (52%-47%). As I type, the results are another squeaker, with both Kelly and Maggie at 48%, Kelly slightly ahead.

    • Colin Van Ostern beating Chris Sununu for NH Governor by 11 points (55%-44%). Sununu has been declared the winner by (currently) 49.1% to 46.6%.

    • Carol Shea-Porter beating Frank Guinta and Shawn O'Connor for US Congress NH District 1, 44%-38%-18% respectively. Current results: 44.3%-42.8%-9.4%.

    • Annie Kuster beating Jim Lawrence for US Congress NH District 2, 59%-40%. Current results: 49.5%-45.7%

    I like those guys at the Survey Center just fine, but it's clear they should probably take a long hard look at their methodology.

  • Even worse, although much funnier, from Sam Wang, Princeton prognosticator:

    Bon appetit, Prof Sam!

  • Although I didn't vote for Trump, and didn't think he'd win, I found myself fantasizing in recent weeks that it would be fun to watch lefty heads explode if he did.

    So far, it's not as much fun as I thought it would be. Schadenfreude is overrated as a pleasure.

  • It appears I will have a couple more years of toothache Carol Shea-Porter representing me in Congress, as she did previously (2007-2011 and 2013-2015). Here's hoping she resumes writing her insipid op-eds for local newspapers; they were a blast to make fun of.

  • I'm slightly gratified by the Libertarian candidates' showing in most local races; they appear to have gotten more votes than the vote difference between the major party candidates. Perhaps this will cause the losers to reflect: Gee, if I'd only made a slight nod in favor of free markets and individual liberty!

    Well, I can dream.


Last Modified 2024-01-26 10:15 AM EDT